The full impact of sanctions on Russian oil begins in May

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The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that the full impact of the sanctions and the shift away from buyers of Russian oil will start from May onwards.

Meanwhile, global demand forecasts were lowered due to the outbreak of the “Corona virus” in China.

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And the Paris-based agency expected in its monthly report that Russian oil losses would reach 1.5 million barrels this April, with the decline in production of Russian refineries and the reluctance of buyers.

“From May onwards, approximately 3 million barrels per day of Russian oil supplies could be cut off,” she said.

The full impact of the expanding voluntary embargo on Moscow is coming into force.”

The agency reported that the new strict closure measures amid the increasing cases of “Corona” in China led to a downward revision in the forecast for global oil demand in the second quarter of 2022.

The forecast for global oil demand was cut by 260,000 barrels per day compared to last month’s estimates.

To reach 99.4 million barrels per day in 2022, an increase of 1.9 million from the previous year.

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On Tuesday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries “OPEC” lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth to 3.7 million barrels per day in 2022, 480,000 barrels lower than last month’s forecast.

“Despite the disruption to Russian oil supplies, lower demand expectations and steady increases in production from OPEC members as well as the United States and other countries should prevent severe deficits,” the agency said.

It expected global refinery productivity to increase by 4.4 million per day from April to August due to new capacity and normal seasonal gains.

The United States and the world’s largest oil consumers are calling on “OPEC” countries and non-OPEC allies led by Russia in the framework of what is known as the “OPEC” alliance to increase production to compensate for the shortfall in supplies.

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It also curbed price hikes, which have worsened since the Russian attack on Ukraine on February 24.

The “OPEC” alliance adheres to a cautious monthly increase in production, by 400,000 barrels per day, from September 2021 until the end of this April.

In its last meeting, “OPEC” adjusted the production increase to a limited extent to 432,000 barrels per day in next May.