What does the upcoming meeting between Erdogan and Biden have in store for us?

According to international news agencies, the Turkish government is looking for a middle ground to bypass a situation referred to in many Turkish media and political circles as the “S-400 crisis”.

Turkish newspapers reported that President Erdogan’s team is working hard to convince the US president and powerful NATO members to conclude that buying a missile system from Russia means not turning your back on the United States and NATO.

Erdogan’s team finally has 10 days to make a final offer to the president to have a say in the upcoming meeting with Joe Biden on the sidelines of the NATO summit meeting.

The relationship between the S-400 and the dispute between the lira and the dollar

According to a report published by Bloomberg Agency, a delegation of Russian military advisers came to Turkey with two large shipments of S-400s that returned to Moscow two days ago, which sent a positive signal to the United States.

But Russian officials denied the allegations, saying that the officers’ return was based on a predetermined calendar and had nothing to do with relations between Ankara and Washington.

Bloomberg also indicated that the denials of Russian officials raised doubts about the currency and capital markets in Turkey.

And that the US dollar has again become fatter against the Turkish lira, and there are fears that it will soon reach 9 liras.

A short visit for greetings and grievances

US State Department spokeswoman Jennifer Psaki said Biden will meet with Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the NATO summit in Brussels on the fourteenth of this month, and regional issues should be discussed.

“In a meeting with the US president on June 14, we will certainly ask why Turkish-US relations are at such a tense stage,” Erdogan said in a lengthy television interview two days ago.

Before you came, we worked with both Democrats and Republicans, from George W. Bush to Obama and Trump.

But I had never experienced such tension with them before.

We didn’t see any tension with Mr. Trump and Mr. Obama.

On the contrary, we were very calm in telephone diplomacy, we were very comfortable and we made decisions on various issues.

Unfortunately, we were not in constant contact with Mr. Biden during this time. We will talk about these issues at the NATO summit.”

Earlier, Turkish media and diplomatic sources in Ankara announced that the meeting between Erdogan and Biden will be half an hour, and taking into account the translation time, this time is about 15 minutes.

Which indicates that during the intense meeting between Erdogan and Biden, most likely, there will not be much time for bargaining and detailed explanations.

There must be a brief and concise agenda that can help change the current climate and cloudy skies between the two countries.

But the statements of some analysts close to Erdogan’s team indicate that there is no hope for a clear result during this meeting.

Turkey is not waiting for the spring of relations

Hasan Basri Yalcin, an analyst close to the AKP, wrote in Al-Sabah newspaper:

“We have to accept the fact that the current problems and tensions between the United States and Turkey focus only on the Armenian issue and Biden’s attempt to acknowledge this claim.”

The massacre is not Armenian and we have at least 10 serious disagreements.

Therefore, even if (thanks to Erdogan’s initiative and diplomatic experience) the meeting with Biden at the NATO summit yields few positive gains, the United States will continue to maintain its ambiguous and aggressive stance.

“No one should expect a new spring between the United States and Turkey.”

As Professor Burhanettin Doran, a member of the Turkish Presidential Foundation’s Foreign Policy and National Security Advisory Board, wrote:

“The meetings of US Deputy Secretary of State Sherman in Ankara showed that Washington continues to oppose the purchase and installation of the S-400.

Many problems, such as the S-400 missile system, the F-35 fighter, and US support for the YPG and Gulen, may not be resolved, but relations can be prevented from deteriorating.

Second, it can be a relatively diplomatic meeting in which the two sides express their theses on problematic issues and express their complaints to the other.

Decoding Biden’s trips and visits

One of the most important issues for Turkey’s diplomatic apparatus is the fact that US President Joe Biden has focused all his energy on issues relating to the Western world.

Biden’s upcoming show shows that his team is trying to mend America’s strained relations with Europe and NATO.

While at the same time gaining more strength against Russia and China.

That is why in the coming days Biden will travel first to England on a two-day trip to attend the G7 summit.

Then he visits Buckingham Palace to meet Queen Elizabeth, and then he meets the King and Prime Minister of Belgium in Brussels.

He will travel during the NATO summit from Belgium to Geneva, Switzerland, to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, and then he will meet with Swiss officials and return to the United States.

This shows that the foreign policy priorities of Joe Biden’s team are the two vital chapters of cooperation with the West and preparation against Russia and China.

In this context, there is great scope for cooperation with a country like Turkey.

Finally, it should be noted that in the 20-year history of the Justice and Development Party led by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the relations between Ankara and Washington have never reached this level of tension and separation.

Interestingly, Turkey’s distance from the United States does not mean a deep and close friendship with Russia.

For example, there are significant differences in views between the Putin administration and Turkey’s actions in recent months, such as:

• The fate of Idlib in Syria.
• Turkish political and military leadership in Libya.
• Turkey’s view of the balance between Ukraine, Crimea, Tatars and the Black Sea.

As a result, Turkey’s foreign policy toward the two powers, the United States and Russia, is very similar to moving on the edge of the sword and trying to keep itself close to both powers at the same time.