In the TCMB analysis prepared by Altan Aldan, Deputy Director General of Structural Economic Research, and Deputy Expert Didem Yazici at the Central Bank of Turkey, it was noted that Turkey has significantly increased its share in the EU market in recent times and this increase has extended to many sectors, and import demand in the EU is expected to increase in line with expectations in the near future.
It was emphasized in the analysis that external demand lost momentum in 2023 due to the impact of global monetary tightening and the limitation of export growth, but in the first eight months of 2024, Turkey’s exports increased by 3.9 percent compared to last year in the same period of the previous year, reaching $170.8 billion.
In the analysis in which the contributions of foreign demand conditions and market share developments to the change in exports on a sectoral basis are examined, with monthly foreign trade data published by Eurostat in the case of the EU, which is Turkey’s largest export market, the analysis shows that total EU imports have been on a downward trend since the beginning of 2023, and the average monthly imports, which were EUR 252 billion in January, decreased to EUR 201 billion in August 2024. Despite the negative demand conditions in the EU market, Turkey increased its monthly exports to the EU from $ 8.7 billion to $ 8.9 billion in the same period.
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The analysis stated that the recent developments in Turkey’s exports to the EU indicate a significant development in terms of its market share, and said: “Based on the periods from January to August, Turkey’s share in EU imports has increased in recent years and reached its historical peak of 4.1 percent in 2024.”
It was emphasized in the analysis that the fact that the increase in exports stems from a specific sector can be a risk factor in terms of continuity, and therefore it was stated that determining the sectoral spread of the increase in exports to the EU and the increase in market share is important in terms of understanding export dynamics and predicting future export performance.
The automotive manufacturing sector has the highest share in Turkey’s exports to the EU, and in the analysis it was explained that although the contribution of the total change in EU imports to the change in Turkey’s exports was negative in almost all sectors, most sectors increased their exports by increasing their market share in the EU.
The analysis indicated that this situation indicates an increase in Turkey’s competitiveness in the EU market.
